10 blackjack myths that don't survive the maths

1. "Always assume the dealer has a ten underneath"

Partly true, often misunderstood. Ten-value cards make up about 31 percent of the shoe, so ten is the most likely single value for the hole card. But it's far from certain. Roughly 69 percent of the time the hole card is something else.

"Assume a ten" is a handy shortcut for remembering why the chart says what it does. It isn't how the chart was built. Basic strategy was worked out from the full probabilities for every possible hole card, which is why it sometimes says something the shortcut wouldn't, like hitting 12 against a dealer 2 or 3.

2. "A bad player at the table ruins it for everyone"

False. When another player hits a hand they "should" have stood on, it changes which cards you get, but you have no way of knowing whether that helps or hurts. Over many hands, other players' decisions are just as likely to help you as to hurt you. Their mistakes cost them money, not you.

The myth survives because people remember the hands where someone took "the dealer's bust card" and forget the many times it went the other way.

3. "Tables run hot and cold"

False. Streaks happen, and in a game with as many hands as blackjack, long streaks are certain to happen. But a streak doesn't predict the next hand. Cards are shuffled; they don't remember what came before. The chance of winning the next hand is the same after five wins as after five losses.

4. "You're due a win after a run of losses"

False. This is the gambler's fallacy, the idea that results must even out soon. Over a very long run, results do drift towards the averages, but not because the cards owe you anything. A huge number of new hands simply dilutes the old streak. No single hand becomes more likely to win.

5. "A betting system can beat the game"

False. Systems like the Martingale (double your bet after every loss) change how your results are spread out, not the average. You win small amounts often and occasionally lose a very large amount, when a losing streak runs into the table limit or your bankroll. The house edge applies to every chip you bet, however you arrange the bets.

Only decisions about how to play the hand change the edge. That's what basic strategy is for.

6. "Insurance protects a good hand"

False. Insurance is a separate bet that the dealer's hole card is a ten. Your own hand has nothing to do with it. It pays 2 to 1 but only wins a little under a third of the time, which leaves the house a much bigger edge on insurance than on the main game. Taking "even money" on your blackjack is exactly the same bet. Decline both, every time. The house edge guide has the numbers.

7. "Never hit 16, you'll probably bust"

The risk is real, but so is the alternative. Hitting hard 16 busts you about 62 percent of the time. But standing on 16 against a dealer 7 or higher only wins when the dealer busts, which happens about a quarter of the time or less. Both options lose money, and hitting loses less. The chart says to hit 16 against 7 through ace, and stand against 2 through 6, when the dealer is the one most likely to bust.

8. "Copy the dealer and you can't go far wrong"

False, and costly. Always drawing to 17 like the dealer sounds sensible but throws away every tool the player has. You'd never double, never split and never stand on a low total against a weak dealer. You'd also still bust first. Playing like the dealer gives the house an edge of around 5 percent, many times worse than basic strategy.

9. "Card counting is illegal"

False. Using your own memory to track cards is legal. But casinos are private businesses and can ask a player they suspect of counting to stop playing blackjack, and they do. Counting also needs a shoe that's dealt deep enough for the count to mean anything. That's not possible at this practice table, where the software reshuffles before the shoe runs low.

10. "Basic strategy guarantees you'll win"

False. Basic strategy is the best way to play each hand, and it makes blackjack one of the cheapest casino games, but the house still has a small edge. You'll still lose more hands than you win, and short-term results can go either way. What it guarantees is that you're not giving away any more than you have to.

Keep learning

Start with how to play blackjack if you're new, or go to the strategy chart to learn the correct play for every hand.